2012 Vol4 No2 RONNEY Content


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WHO WILL BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT? The Swinging Pendulum.

Having been taken to the cleaners in the first presidential by the lead opponent, ex-Massachusetts Governor and business mogul, Mitt Romney, the incumbent American President, Barrack Obama oozed a great deal of confidence in the second presidential debate held on Tuesday, October 18, 2010. Obama cut the picture of an adequately prepared man, bristling with staccato responses to Romney's tricky questions.

Obama won the night's presidential debate by slim margins in two surveys taken immediately after the 90-minute town-hall forum ended.

In a CBS News poll, 37 percent of 525 uncommitted voters who monitored the debate declared Obama the winner. Conversely, 30 percent said the same of Romney. 33 percent said it was a tie. A Cable News Network (CNN) poll of 457 registered voters gave the debate to the president by a 7percentage point margin, 46 percent to 39 percent.

Despite Obama's slight edge overall, Romney was seen as better able to handle most issues.

Overall, most of women said they remain undecided. They said they feel as though it's time to do some more research on the candidates, and ultimately, its time to make their decision.

The U.S. Presidential debate offers useful lessons to African nations as a whole. African countries do not take presidential debates seriously enough. Even the African citizens who constitute the electorates are not usually enthusiastic on presidential or governorship debates. Another disturbing trend is the deliberate refusal of many African incumbent presidents and governors to attend the debates. This leaves much to be desired, and the trend must be nipped in the bud.

The words associated with Obama's performance were a mix of positive and negative. They ranged from unprepared and stumbling, to specific, impressive and prepared.

The same was true for Romney, as far as the mixed feelings. Some women said they saw him as confident; others described him as arrogant and superior. There was a lukewarm agreement that Obama seemed more genuine than Romney.

In WASHINGTON, Reuters said Mitt Romney's strong debate performance did little to convince more voters he understands them or is a "good person" even though he has narrowed President Barack Obama's overall poll lead, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey released on Saturday.

Just a month before the November 6 election, the Democratic president is ahead of his Republican challenger on character attributes that can win over undecided voters who have not been swayed on policy points.

Romney gained in a few areas, but not at Obama's expense despite the incumbent's lackluster performance in the first presidential debate on Wednesday.

On the broad question of who they will vote for in November, Obama kept his slim 2 percentage point lead over Romney among likely voters - 47 to 45 percent - in the online survey.

The gap was unchanged from Friday, when Obama led by 46 to 44 percent in the tracking poll. His lead was 6 percentage points before the two men first went head-to-head in Denver.

"We haven't seen additional gains from Romney. This suggests to me that this is more of a bounce than a permanent shift," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

The poll did not show Obama backers shifting to Romney. Rather, Romney's small gains on a few of the issues came from people who had been undecided.

Obama even gained ground in some voters' assessment of his character since before the debate, even though a majority - 55 to 23 percent - felt Romney did a better job during the encounter in Denver, the survey showed.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters deemed Obama "a good person," compared with 31 percent who felt that way about Romney. In a similar survey on September 28, Obama led by 43 percent to Romney's 32 percent.

Obama held his ground on a range of such questions. Far more voters (53 to 29 percent) deemed Obama likeable than feel the same way about Romney. He also leads by a healthy margin (43 to 37 percent) on who has the right values to be president.

In addition, 43 percent felt Obama "understands people like me," compared with 31 percent who felt that way about Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and wealthy businessman who has struggled to connect with average Americans.

'GIVING ROMNEY A BOOST'

"There's still a way to go to close the gap between him and Obama on some of these important attributes," Clark said. "This suggests to me that while the debate was effective in energizing the Republican base and giving Romney a boost, it didn't fundamentally change perceptions of either man a great deal."

Romney made some gains. He was up 4 percentage points when voters were asked if he is eloquent, compared with the survey released on September 28. But he still lags well behind, with Obama leading 48 percent to 27 percent.

Romney also gained 3 percentage points on the questions of who is tough enough to be president and fun to meet in person. Obama still leads on both, with a 42 to 38 percent edge on the toughness question and a striking 48 to 24 percent advantage on who would be fun to meet.

Ratings of the two men were generally tighter on issues more closely linked to the nuts and bolts of governing. They were tied with the support of just over a third of voters - 37 percent - on the question of who can be effective in Washington.

About a third - 34 percent - of registered voters picked Obama as stronger on the issue of bipartisanship than the roughly one quarter - 27 percent - who opted for Romney.

The online survey of 1,770 registered voters and 1,492 likely voters was conducted from October 2-6.

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for registered voters and 2.9 for likely voters.

For the question of bipartisanship, which was added to the survey on Wednesday night, the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with an interview base of 1,323 registered voters.

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RECOMMENDED: Presidential debate: 7 defining moments in history

A Rasmussen national survey out at weekend shows a shift from Obama 49-47 to Romney 49-47.

“This is a small shift that's significant in a close race,” pollster Scott Rasmussen told the New York Post. “Both candidates have a stable base, and the race is close. Barring something that happens in the real world, it's likely to remain close.”

“Bounces are called bounces because they don't last forever,” Mr. Rasmussen says. “We don't know if this will disappear, or if they will build on it, or what other news will do to the race.”

The latest Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll shows President Obama's lead dropping from five points (48-43) to just two points (46-44). In Gallup's daily tracking poll, Romney picked up two points, putting him within three points of Obama (46-49). The RealClearPolitics polling average (as of Saturday) has Obama ahead by just 1.4 points.

State polls are instructive as well.

In Wisconsin, the Public Policy Polling organization finds “a big debate bump for Mitt Romney.” Two weeks ago, he trailed Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

“Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49 percent of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48 percent with a negative one,” PPP reported Saturday. “That's up a net 8 points from a 44-51 spread on our last poll.”

Although Obama hung on to his 9-point lead among independent voters in Wisconsin, according to PPP, there's also been “a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election.”

In Colorado another key state the University of Denver reported Sunday that Obama continues to hold the lead among likely voters there 47-43 percent, including 48-31 among independents.

But there was good news for Romney in Colorado as well: 38 percent of likely voters said their impression of Romney is improving, while just 18 percent felt the same way about Obama.

“Two important lessons from the polls are: first, there are very few undecided voters left in Colorado, and second, Gov. Romney has improved his position to win them over in the closing days of the race,” said University of Denver political scientist Peter Hanson. “President Obama is maintaining a narrow lead in the state, but the major question is how much movement we can expect in the polls in coming weeks with not many voters left for the candidates to persuade.”

Presidential elections are won and lost in the Electoral College, and the RealClearPolitics map shows Obama ahead of Romney 251-181 with 106 toss-ups. (It takes 270 electoral votes to win.)

Statistician and poll-watcher Nate Silver, who writes the FiveThirtyEight blog for the New York Times, gives Romney about a 20 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Still, that's up from 15 percent before last Wednesday's debate.

“Mr. Romney's gains in the polls have been sharp enough that he should continue to advance in the FiveThirtyEight forecast if he can maintain his numbers over the next couple of days,” Mr. Silver writes. “In a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama's column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama's softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.

Culled from The Reuters/IPSOS, New York Post, New York Time and The Guardian, Nigeria.

 

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The Suspension of Nigeria CBN Governor is it constitutional?.
 

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